The following guest post is from Spencer Lindsay, a faculty member in the School of Government and Public Policy at the University of Arizona. Predicting elections and estimating the uncertainty around those predictions is not an easy task. It is especially difficult to have a clear picture of the

I don’t agree with the idea that Donald Trump’s criminal trial in New York City is a yawner. Sure, it’s a trial about business records. But it will also be packed with drama, involving a former president having sex with a porn star just after his wife Melania gave birth to their son in 2006 and

After seeing a post about a Republican candidate for the Kentucky House arrested for strangulation, a prominent political observer and longtime reader noted that Political Wire might have the most complete database of politicians doing bad things. He also noted that the overwhelming majority of

The latest episode of Trial Balloon is live for members. Arizona’s abortion ruling is a disaster for Trump and Republicans. Stubborn inflation is a problem for Biden and Democrats. Can red states knock Biden off the ballot? Join now to continue reading. Members get exclusive analysis, bonus

Just for members: The latest edition of Inside Elections. This issue includes a deep dive into one of the most important Senate races on the map: Arizona. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) exit makes the race more conventional between Ruben Gallego (D) and Kari Lake (R), but the Arizona Supreme Court’s